| 英文摘要
| Since the end of World War II, the nature of the international system has been entering an era of war restraint due to the nuclear terror balance, legalization of state’s right to survive, and the deepening interdependence between states. As a structural incentive, the changing nature of international system imposes an inevitably impact on state’s behavioral pattern. The war restraint not only means that the first choice for power transition has largely limited, but also indicates that a longer and more complicate power competition will occur. Such phenomenon triggers some important research questions: (1) How does the power transition happen when the war is limited? What is the mechanism of power competition? (2) Which mode of power competition may be more conducive for great powers to achieve the ultimate hegemonic position? (3) How could the rising power break the structural constraint through peaceful approach to realize the power transition with the hegemonic power?
To answer these questions, this dissertation first conducts a critical literature review on the existing studies to identify the theoretical inadequacies, and then modified Waltz’s structural realism by modifying the state function as an important variable. By doing so, there are two independent variables existing in structural realism: the relative capability is the primary independent variable and the state functional substitution is the secondary independent variable. A 2x2 explanatory model is formulated in this dissertation, serving as the theoretical tool. Based on explanatory model, this dissertation proposes the core hypothesis: if the great power A could provide a higher state functional substitution in security, economic and value realms than great power B, the great power A will be likely to achieve the hegemonic position. The author applies three most different cases, including the power competition between British and France in Napoleon period, the United States and Soviet Union competition in Cold War period, and the Sino-US relations in 21st century, to testify the core hypothesis. In the three most different case studies, we could find that the British, United States and China won the finally or periodically by providing a higher state functional substitution than their competitors, which verify the core hypothesis.
At the theoretical level, the state functional substitution theory has contributed to the existing studies in following aspects: (1) offering a more systemic explanation on how the great powers defeat their competitors to reach the hegemonic position. (2) A theoretical modification on structural realism by regarding the state function as the second independent variable. (3) Seeing the power transition as the dependent variable rather than independent variable. (4) Bridging the theoretical gap between hegemonic realism and balancing realism. At the practical level, the state functional substitution theory is also helpful in understanding Donald Trump’s withdraw from several international institutions and international organizations.
Certainly, the state functional substitutional theory has its limit. First, this theory insists on the state-centric assumption, which makes it pay less attention to the non-state actors. Second, the major objectives of state functional substitutional theory are the great powers, which means that the middle and small powers play less role in the explanatory model. Third, such theory locates at the system level, which is unable to explain the domestic factors. |
